Silver Lining: Trump Nomination Leads to Huge Increases in Hispanic Naturalization and Voter Registration

The rate at which Hispanic immigrants are becoming naturalized citizens has picked up dramatically this year, doubling rates seen even last year.

And the rate of Hispanic registration to vote, both among recent and long-time citizens, is also way up, tripling in some places.

All of which is an unexpected benefit of Donald Trump's likely nomination as the Republican candidate for president.

There is almost always a silver lining, even in dark events.

The World Is Drinking A Bit Less Booze

For the first time in ten years, worldwide alcohol consumption went down.  The drop, about 1.7% compared to last year, includes Eastern Europe, notorious for its high rates of alcoholism.

Unfortunately, drinking rates in the U.S. continue to rise.

Still, a worldwide decrease in the use of the most damaging drug is good news.

Longer Living Through Sociology: The Oldest American is a Sociologist

From the American Sociological Association Newsletter

The oldest person in the U.S., 113-year-old Goldie Michelson, received a master's degree in sociology from Clark University in Worcester. Her thesis was titled "A Citizenship Survey of Worcester Jewry" and examined why many of the city's older Jewish-immigrant residents did not pursue American citizenship or learn English.

The Ironic Effect of the Gay Marriage Debate Has Been to Make Liberals More Pro-Marriage

A decade ago it was common for liberals to consider whether all "personal relationships" should be considered not only equally valid choices, but equally good in their effects on the adults and their children.

At the same time, though, the most successful argument for same-sex marriage touted the importance of marriage for the couple, their children, and society as a whole.

As a result, liberals, who almost by definition opposed the ban on same-sex marriage, came to talk less about the irrelevance of marriage, and more about marriage as a right for all and a benefit to society.

Sociology Understands the Difference Between "Most People" and "Each Person"

The hardest part of teaching sociology is getting students to see how we can make generalizations about groups which are true of the group in general, without being true of each in individual in the group.

One teachable aphorism I came up with this year is "Sociology Understands the Difference Between 'Most' and 'All'".

Today a refinement of that aphorism came to me, which appears in the title of this post.

White resentment of African Americans is a strong predictor of support for Donald Trump.

This survey found that, on a 17-point scale, a majority of white Republicans fell into the top four levels of racial resentment, and fully a quarter took the most extreme position.

If you can't see the whole chart in your browser, please follow the link to the original article.

White Against Black 

Whites were surveyed and placed on a 17-point scale that gauges the racial resentment they feel toward African-Americans. Here is the percentage of Democrats, independents and Republicans who fell into the least resentful (having a positive view of blacks) and most resentful ends of the scale. 

24%

of white Republicans were at the extreme end of the resentment scale.

20%

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

15

10

5

LEVEL OF RESENTMENT:

Most

Most

Most

Least

Least

Least

22

42

58

23%

10%

0.4%

of Democrats

Source: Analysis of American National Election Studies survey data, collected by YouGov, by Drew Engelhardt and Marc Hetherington, Vanderbilt University 

By The New York Times 

Why Powerful Women Might Stay After His Affair

I was not surprised that Hillary Clinton stayed with Bill Clinton after his affair with Monica Lewinsky was exposed (nor the affairs before that).  I read her, then and now, as an equal player in a power couple.  I am sure she was mad as hell, and with ample justification.  I don't know how, exactly, they reconciled, though I believe their reconciliation is real.

Josie Pickens makes a similar argument in The Daily Beast about why Beyoncé would stay with her husband after he cheated on her - as she seems to be saying in the album/film Lemonade. She is an equal player in a power couple. They still have things to do together.

Pickens writes:

A woman can now choose to stay in a marriage after partner's affair because it's good for business and her whole life trajectory.

The Rich Live Longer and Marry Better Because They Act on Knowledge

The rich live longer than the poor.  But they didn't always. It seems to be that knowledge of how to live in a healthier way - and, especially, to not take up self-destructive habits - is the key.  The rich got that knowledge sooner, and acted on it more effectively.

Knowledge-as-power is a two way street.  People who act on knowledge that helps you live longer are also likely to get richer and gain higher status, regardless of where they started.  And their kids start out with the advantage of parents who set a good example.

I think the same is true of marriage.  The rich are more likely to be married, to marry before they have kids, and to stay married, than are the poor.  I believe this is because they are more likely to have better knowledge of how to be married and how advantageous marriage is to the couple and their kids.  Most importantly, the rich are more likely to act on the knowledge they have.

And the same two-way street analogy applies.  The knowledgeable live longer and marry better.

The Non-Marital Birth Rate is Falling in Eastern Europe

The different regions of Europe have long had different marriage and marital birth rates.  The Scandinavians had more non-marital births before the welfare state and secularization.  The Eastern Europeans had fewer even before communism.

In general, the non-marital birth rate has been rising in Europe.  The Nordic countries may have peaked, with just over half of children now born out of wedlock.

The really interesting development, though, is that the non-marital birth rate is falling in Eastern Europe.  As the weight of communist anti-religion is lifting and new generations rebuild old traditions of the region, Eastern Europe bucks the trend of the rest of Europe.

Why I Am Not Broken Up By the Death of Several Popular Musicians

I am a bit out of step with my peers in not being especially moved by the death of some prominent musicians.  My Boomer friends were torn up about David Bowie, and now my Gen X friends are torn up about Prince.  And some of each were strongly affected by Michael Jackson's death.

A.J. Hartley has a good piece about why people who grew up before the internet might be more affected by the loss of favorite musicians than young people with easy access to music. I feel that some - I am old enough (I am on the Boomer/Gen X cusp) to remember listening carefully and memorizing whole albums.

Still, it is hard for me to think of a singer whose death would feel like a huge personal and social loss.  Springsteen has been my clear favorite since the '70s, and I appreciate his ongoing production of great songs. Nonetheless, if he died tomorrow, I would appreciate what he had made, but not feel a part of me had gone.

I am not sure why. Perhaps I am not as affected by music as others (though I don't think so).  Perhaps it is just these artists (though my Springsteen reflection makes me think not).

My best two best guesses are these:
1) As a sociologist, I see even exceptional artists as types, rather than as uniquely irreplaceable figures;
2) As a bourgeois, I feel at arms length from artists as people, even if I appreciate their work.

I am puzzled.  I would welcome your thoughts.

Why the White Suicide Rate is Up

Less educated white men have a rising suicide rate.

White women's suicide rate has gone up significantly.  Women are much less likely to kill themselves than men, but their suicide rate has gone up more than twice as fast as men's.

I am speculating here well beyond the data, so I hold this idea only loosely.

It makes sense to me that less educated white people would be more despairing.  They have suffered the most from the decline of low-education jobs, with no affirmative-action benefit.  They have been the most surprised at the increasing diversity and integration of American society, and the consequent decline of the power of white privilege.  They are the group most likely to support a demagogue who promises to "take the country back" from imagined nefarious forces, and make it great "again" compared to a vaguely specified past.

In the big picture, America is getting better.  However, low-education white people are the least likely to experience that improvement.

We happy, busy Calvinists are blessed beyond measure.

It was my turn to offer a Prayer of the People in our Presbyterian church today.

We happy, busy Calvinists are blessed beyond measure.

If we are not grateful, we have no excuse.

If we look at our blessings and think we have earned them all we are blind to our privilege and the hard work of others.

If we look at all that people are making better in the world, yet only complain about what is still not right, we are unjust.

If we look at all that is still not right in the world and do not get to work, we miss our calling.

God gave us a good world.  God gave us a vocation to work for its betterment.  God gave us the teaching that we cannot do this without God.

We are the happiest people in America.  We are the most trusting of people in general.  We are the most willing to teach our children to be trusting before experience.

We are not driven by fear.

Be happy.  Get busy.

Amen.

We Are Not Stuck in the Middle: We Aspire to the Center

A centrist aphorism the came to me today.

Marrying an Intelligent Woman Prevents Dementia; No Word on Intelligent Men

The main finding of this study is encouraging: men married to intelligent women are much less likely to develop Alzheimers.  (I should, therefore, be iron-clad protected, thanks to Mrs. G.)

However, it is surprising that the emeritus male professor, in reporting this study, did not even mention whether women receive any protection from marrying intelligent men.

I think this is garden-variety sexism.

It is also a perfect set-up for so many jokes.

Religious Regulars Give More to Community and Family, and are Happier for it.

Nifty Pew study.  Confirms what I keep saying.

Assortive Marriage in One Generation Produces A Wide Gap in Educational Achievement in the Next

Nicholas Zill, a well-known family researcher, has conducted an interesting study of just how much difference educational sorting among parents makes in the educational achievement of their kids.

"Assortive mating", or the marriage among people of the same class, is increasingly common.  Zill found that half of today's young adults had parents of the same educational level as one another, and another 40% had parents who were only one educational level apart.

Assortive marriage also increases the likelihood that there will be a wide gap in the educational achievement of the children.  The gap was so large, in fact, that Zill called it a "chasm."  On a standardize 8th grade knowledge test, the children of dual graduate-degree parents scored at the 88th percentile, while the children of two high-school dropouts scored at the 20th.

However, this gap does not cumulate forever.  Even in one generation we see some regression to the mean - the top group average is lower than if the kids perfectly reproduced the parents, and the bottom group is considerably higher.

Do Religious Liberty Laws Give Christians a Right to Feed the Hungry, Even When It Is Against the Law?

The new religious liberty laws in the South allow people to deny service to others on the basis of the server's religious beliefs.

The laws were written so that, to take a real example, a Christian baker could refuse to make a cake for a gay wedding.

In some of the same states, laws have been passed to prevent Christians from feeding the homeless in public places.

I wonder if these religious liberty laws would also allow people to claim a legal right to serve people on the basis of the server's religious beliefs?

White Privilege is the Weakest Major Privilege

Privilege is an unearned advantage given to us by others.  As such, it is a condition that has to be visible to others so they can accord it to us without much knowledge about us.

The best known privileges are, therefore, male privilege and white privilege.  In this top group I would include class privilege, which most social observers can discern on sight.

Of these three, class privilege is, I believe, the one that always matters the most.  It multiplies the substantive advantages of the rich by giving them (us) the benefit of the doubt even before having to demonstrate wealth.

Male privilege is also powerful, a step down from class privilege.

White privilege, though, is mostly a sop to poor white people to keep them from uniting with poor non-white people against the rich.  It does not have nearly as many material advantages as class or male privilege, and those material advantages decline every day.  But it does work to mobilize poor white people to support rich (mostly) white people on behalf of privilege in general.

Good News: Malaysian Court Accepts a Conversion From Islam, Declares a Right to Religious Freedom

I think the greatest challenge for Muslims in civil society is accepting conversion out of Islam.

Islam has an excellent record of living with non-Muslims in their midst, and welcoming converts from other faiths to Islam.  However, it is Muslim doctrine that all people really are Muslims - converting out of the faith, therefore, is apostasy, and merits the highest punishment.

In secular societies, this is not a major issue - the Muslim community just has to suck it up if their members convert out.

In Muslim societies, though, it is a major challenge to accept conversion from Islam.  Therefore it is big news that the Malaysian courts have accepted the conversion of a Muslim to Christianity.  The court accepted a fundamental right of religious freedom within their overwhelmingly Muslim society.

Trump and Clinton Unfavorable Ratings, By Some Interesting Class Designations

Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have high unfavorable ratings from many groups in society.

Zogby Analytics has come up with an interesting way of indicating different social classes in measuring these unfavorable numbers.

Trump unfavorable:

Investor class: 55%
Creative class: 61%
Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers: 54%


Clinton unfavorable:

Investor class: 53%
Creative class: 53%
Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers: 52%