Thursday, October 29, 2015
China Drops The One-Child Policy
The draconian one-child policy did reduce the population growth rate in China dramatically. They went from having a population bomb to a birth dearth.
The expectable consequence of the old policy is that they will not have enough workers to maintain their cheap-labor economic growth. They will also not have enough young workers to support their rapidly aging population.
The unexpected effect of the policy was that by limiting the number of children per couple to one, without changing the cultural preference for boys, they produced a massive sex imbalance - now about 119 boys born for every 100 girls.
For these reasons, China has officially dropped the policy. However, many middle-class Chinese have already culturally adjusted to sub-replacement family size, just like families in developed nations. Culture, and the cost of middle-class life, may keep the one-child effect going.